Trading expectancy calculator
Work out the average result per trade from your win rate, average win and average loss, plus the profit factor and the win rate you need to break even. Free, no sign-up, nothing leaves your browser.
The starting numbers are only an example. Use figures from a real trade record, after fees. Expectancy summarises past trades; it is not a forecast or advice.
What expectancy measures
Expectancy is the average amount a series of trades made or lost per trade. It combines how often you win with how big wins and losses are: win rate × average win, minus loss rate × average loss. A positive number means the record, on average, made money per trade; a negative one means it lost.
Why win rate alone misleads
A 70% win rate can still lose money if the average loss is much bigger than the average win, and a 35% win rate can make money if wins are far larger than losses. The profit factor, total wins divided by total losses, shows the same balance as a single number: above 1 means wins outweighed losses.
The limits
Expectancy is worked out from past trades, so it needs a large enough sample to mean much, and it can change when markets do. It also leaves out fees, spreads and slippage unless you build them into the averages. It describes what happened, not what will.
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